"Individuals who receive unwelcome information may not simply resist challenges to their views. Instead, they may come to support their original opinion even more strongly — what we call a 'backfire effect.' "
Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler
I started thinking about this newsletter in 2013, when I was taking a class in cognitive neuroscience and I started reading the research on a very intriguing question: How do people change their minds?
This week's theme: Changing somebody's mind is impossible! (But tomorrow: Maybe it's still a little bit possible.)
Today we're going to talk about the "backfire effect."
• The backfire effect
In research they did during the Iraq war, psychologists Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler did some experiments testing the effectiveness of correcting misinformation. If they corrected pro-liberal or pro-conservative misinformation, would partisans accept the correction to their own views?
The answer was no. A thousand times no. For example, shown evidence that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction before the war, conservatives became more likely to believe that Iraq did have them. In other words, correcting the false belief actually led people to dig in to their positions deeper.
Well, that's interesting. That tells you one very important thing for your own communication: Do NOT try to debate facts and argue against the views of people who disagree with you. The first rule of debate club is, you do not get involved in debate club.
Takeaway: Arguing with people doesn't change their minds.
Okay, so that about covers it. But wait …
• The one where Josh is guilty of the exact thing he's talking about
So . . . um . . . to be perfectly honest about this . . .
Well, psychologists have continued testing the backfire effect and are casting doubt on its validity.
But, in keeping with the backfire effect, I reject that. I believe in it even more!
Here's what I think. The Nyhan-Reifler experiments focused on one thing — correcting a piece of information — and their findings were about that one approach, correction. And maybe that conclusion has become iffy. There are studies showing that sometimes correcting misinformation can work.
But what really doesn't work is debating. There's an idealized form of debate in which both sides are seeking to work toward agreement and come closer to conclusions that will persuade their audience. Because everyone is seeking the same truth in good faith. But arguments are not that.
In an argument, people become advocates for their own side and the very act of arguing makes them dig in deeper. (At least, this is an implication of everything we've learned, and I see it every day in social media.) Remember, people’s opinions grow out of their identity, so if you attack their opinions they’re taking it personally.
Since we've talked about the connection between cognition and emotion, we realize that a debate is not just a logical exercise — it's an emotional experience. Attacking someone's opinions is the same as attacking their identity, their core being, and of course they fight back. Harder. And that's the real backfire effect.
This is really important, because it shows us there is a wrong way to affect people's thinking.
The rest of this week, let's find a way that works!
• Okay, so how does this help me?
We will talk about this so much in the coming days. I have a whole framework for how to persuade without arguing. In fact, that's why I started this newsletter in the first place.
For today, let me share this with you.
In 2018, I was out canvassing for a House candidate in my home state of New Jersey, and I ended up in a conversation with an extreme right-winger who didn't want to hear any of our Democratic nonsense.
Him: "I want smaller government. They keep taking our money and giving it away to people on welfare. We have to stop all these entitlements."
Me: "Well, it's interesting that you talk about 'entitlements,' because in Washington, 'entitlements' means Social Security and Medicare. You know, they passed this big tax cut last December and added $140 billion to the deficit every year."
Him: "That's right, they did."
Me: "And then immediately they started saying they were going to cut entitlements, and that means Social Security and Medicare. And we're going to need that money that we worked for when we retire."
Him: "Yeah. I see."
And then we were interrupted — but it was real progress. That's because I didn't contradict anything he said. I didn't argue against him for even a second. In fact, I kind of argued for him.
This is The Key.
Joshua Tanzer
jmtanzer@gmail.com
Los Angeles
Takeaway Toteboard
- KEY #1: Republicans are from Mars, Democrats are from Swarthmore. (Feb. 23):
• Democrats run an intellectual campaign to voters who are emotional creatures.
• Instead of running an intellectual campaign, we need to use our intellect to create an emotional campaign.
- KEY #2: What does the Democrats’ hat say? (Feb. 26)
• The Republicans’ philosophy fits on a hat. Democrats don’t have one.
- KEY #3: Love isn’t rational. (Feb 28):
• Politics is emotion.
• If you find yourself trying to argue intellectually, stop! Find the emotional argument.
- KEY #4: You’re an animal! (March 1):
• Our attitudes come from our identity.
• You are speaking to the voter's animal brain.
- KEY #5: Don’t take away my _____! (March 4):
• Don't get into a fight with people's way of life.
• When you talk about change, find the “win.”
- KEY #6: You are this boy and life is this marshmallow. (March 6):
• Find ways to affirm people's way of life.
• Don’t just campaign; build community.
- KEY #7: Motivated reasoning (aka “Remember this friggin guy?”) (March 8):
• People believe what they need to believe.
- KEY #8: How your head keeps from exploding (March 11):
• People experiencing cognitive dissonance want an alternative narrative to make it better.
• Do not engage with your opponent’s alternative narrative.
- KEY #9: Lalalalalalalala, I'm not listening! (March 13):
• People don't hear information that conflicts with their opinions.
• Misinformation stays in people's heads. (And trying to correct it doesn't work well.)
• Don't respond to attacks by repeating the same attacks in your own language.
- KEY #10: Maybe there’s hope for people (March 15):
• Get out ahead of charges with your own framing.
• Correct misinformation fast.
• Let people know when they're about to hear something untrue.
• Undermine the source.
• Reframe, don’t repeat.
- KEY #11: The first rule of debate club is … (March 18):
• Arguing with people doesn't change their minds.
I am getting a lot out of these. Thank you.