KEY #9: Lalalalalalalala, I'm not listening!
I started thinking about this newsletter in 2013, when I was taking a class in cognitive neuroscience and I started reading the research on a very intriguing question: How do people change their minds?
This week's theme: Changing somebody's mind is impossible! (But coming soon: Maybe it's still a little bit possible.)
One way that we protect ourselves from changing our minds — and one that you may have heard of before — is confirmation bias.
• Confirmation bias
Confirmation bias means that as you are exposed to new information, you tend to accept it (and remember it) if it confirms your opinions, or reject it (and forget it) if it casts doubt on your opinions. New information is a way of strengthening the case for what you already believe.
This is a conclusion that goes back to the 1970s. In one experiment at Stanford, 48 test subjects were given the results of studies showing that the death penalty did or did not reduce crime, and in general they used the agreeable study to buttress their existing beliefs and thought up reasons to criticize the disagreeable study. (The smarter you are, by the way, the more you try to find ways to dismiss a study that doesn't support your opinion. We'll talk about this more when we get to the "backfire effect.")
Today, confirmation bias is institutionalized in our society via polarized media. We have one TV network providing comfortable misinformation for conservatives, and other media reporting on (what I would call) reality (and they wouldn't) for liberals.
Takeaway: People don't hear information that conflicts with their opinions.
• Wait, it gets worse
I've spent 30 years in journalism, and over in the "better journalism" conversation, the answer to this problem is always, "We should do more fact-checking" and "We should make our process more open to the public."
These are noble but irrelevant solutions, for two reasons.
1. People aren't receptive to conflicting messages. That's because their opinions originate at a deep level of identity and it's more comfortable to dismiss the message than juggle it with our other beliefs. We just talked about that.
2. Also, misinformation persists in our memory even after being corrected. It's like we took a picture of a white dog under a blue light, and then fixed the light and took a second picture properly. The blue dog is still in our camera; similarly, a false fact is still in our brain.
This is called the "continuing influence effect." Psychologists have tested this effect by giving subjects messages such as "John played hockey for New York." "No, he played for Boston." After that exposure, both cities were in the subjects' memory, and they would think of either team when they thought of John.
A real-world example that psychologists have focused on (since long before Covid) is childhood vaccination, because there are serious public-health implications if people don't get their children vaccinated. Incorrect beliefs about dangers of vaccines persist (among 43% of subjects in one experiment) despite efforts to correct them, because misinformation doesn't go away.
Takeaway: Misinformation stays in people's heads. (And trying to correct it doesn't work well.)
On Friday: Are there maybe ways of getting around confirmation bias?
• Okay, so how does this help me?
Again, the main way this helps you is that there is not much point arguing against people's beliefs, even if they're wrong. This is part of a psychological self-defense system in our brains that is very strong. We're going to find ways around it next week.
But think about how you respond to accusations. Should you correct them?
Well, you definitely should not be responding to the opponent's specific points. "It's not true that I will cut funding for our veterans." Suddenly, you're putting the vet-cutting image in people's heads, and science tells us it will stick there. An article that says "Joe Smith yesterday denied he'll cut funding for our veterans" is a way of putting the exact thing you denied in their heads — with your name on it.
It's smarter to attack the negative politics of it. "My God, there's nothing my opponent won't say, is there?"
And when you do respond, you need to be making the emotional argument, not getting lost in the opponent's specific charges.
- "My father was a veteran, and one thing he always said was ..."
- "Let me tell you what I've done for veterans: 1. ..."
- "Just last week I met with [group X] and I told them, 'I guarantee you one thing ...' "
Takeaway: Don't respond to attacks by repeating the same attacks in your own language.
Joshua Tanzer
jmtanzer@gmail.com
Los Angeles, California
Takeaway Toteboard
- KEY #1: Republicans are from Mars, Democrats are from Swarthmore. (Feb. 23):
• Democrats run an intellectual campaign to voters who are emotional creatures.
• Instead of running an intellectual campaign, we need to use our intellect to create an emotional campaign.
- KEY #2: What does the Democrats’ hat say? (Feb. 26)
• The Republicans’ philosophy fits on a hat. Democrats don’t have one.
- KEY #3: Love isn’t rational. (Feb 28):
• Politics is emotion.
• If you find yourself trying to argue intellectually, stop! Find the emotional argument.
- KEY #4: You’re an animal! (March 1):
• Our attitudes come from our identity.
• You are speaking to the voter's animal brain.
- KEY #5: Don’t take away my _____! (March 4):
• Don't get into a fight with people's way of life.
• When you talk about change, find the “win.”
- KEY #6: You are this boy and life is this marshmallow. (March 6):
• Find ways to affirm people's way of life.
• Don’t just campaign; build community.
- KEY #7: Motivated reasoning (aka “Remember this friggin guy?”) (March 8):
• People believe what they need to believe.
- KEY #8: How your head keeps from exploding (March 11):
• People experiencing cognitive dissonance want an alternative narrative to make it better.
• Do not engage with your opponent’s alternative narrative.
- KEY #9: Lalalalalalalala, I'm not listening! (March 13):
• People don't hear information that conflicts with their opinions.
• Misinformation stays in people's heads. (And trying to correct it doesn't work well.)
• Don't respond to attacks by repeating the same attacks in your own language.