KEY #17: It's coming from inside the house
It's coming from inside the house
The highest-profile organization fighting Donald Trump since the 2020 election is made of Republicans — the Lincoln Project. We need to talk about them for a minute.
The Lincoln Project is led by Republican campaign operatives who, to their credit, found Trump unacceptable and decided they needed to do something about him. To their discredit, what they've done is the same old thing they know how to do. Make unpleasant attack ads.
"Donald Trump's incompetence, ignorance and indifference have made him the most deadly, job-killing president in our history."
"The ratings are in for your convention. It's not pretty."
"I'm no psychiatrist, Donald, but it sounds to me like you have daddy issues."
"Some people say Trump and Kushner were incompetent when it comes to Covid. Let's call it what it is: evil."
Let's think about this. One thing we know from psychology is the "backfire effect." (See The Key #11, March 18.) We know that when you attack the other person's side, you make the other person dig in deeper, not see your point of view. The Lincoln Project thinks the problem is, nobody's been hitting Trump hard enough.
Certainly no admakers hit Trump as hard as they hit Trump. But the important question is: Who is this for?
Outside of Youtube, the only place I've seen their ads is on the Rachel Maddow Show. That's the market for these ads — liberals.
I got to see the members of Lincoln Project speak in February 2020, and it was a perfectly good event and they got very enthusiastic applause for their denunciations of Trump and our country's direction. But where was this? In a college auditorium in Greenwich Village, New York City. Not remotely the right audience.
How are their ads actually landing in swing states, where voters need persuading? Who knows? It is notoriously difficult to know whether ads are getting results.
"Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted;
the trouble is, I don't know which half."
— John Wanamaker
Studies of political TV ads are all over the place, some claiming they work, others claiming they're useless, others figuring, well, if campaigns are doing them, they must have a reason. One study (pictured) says the only ads that work are exclusively positive ones in regions of strength to increase turnout.
So who knows — maybe these ads are helping. But probably they're alienating voters and even jacking up the Republican vote. One Senate race where the Lincoln Project planted its multimillion-dollar foot was the campaign against Susan Collins in Maine. In fact, the Democrat there was thought to be winning — until just before the end. The New York Times made a case study of it afterwards:
Over the weeks leading up to Election Day, Mr. Gilbert was first put off, and then “disgusted,” by the negative tone of the Senate showdown, in which spending by candidates and outside groups totaled more than $180 million.
The relentless television advertisements. The cold calls. The mailings, fistfuls of them every day, “crumpled up and in the recycling bin” before he even glanced at them.
By the time the Democratic Party distributed yard signs, Mr. Gilbert refused to display one for Sara Gideon, Ms. Collins’s opponent, leaving a gap among the signs he displayed in support of Joseph R. Biden Jr.; Jared Golden, his Democratic congressman; and Black Lives Matter.
Here's the article — it's a must-read: The Democrats Went All Out Against Susan Collins. Rural Maine Grimaced.
Most likely, these ads, funded by so many millions of dollars, are just swirling into the rest of the muck that our poor Pennsylvanians and Ohioans, Nevadans and Mainers are being drowned in. What's one more attack ad? The Lincoln Project guys are making them because it's the one thing they know how to do and it feels good to do it. Their reason for doing it is psychological. When I ask, "Who is this for?" the answer might just be, it's for themselves.
• A better way
Who is talking to you in a Lincoln Project ad? A voice without a face.
Let's call her Female Voice Actor 6. Does Female Voice Actor 6 know you? Do you have anything in common with Female Voice Actor 6? Or does Female Voice Actor 6 live in Hollywood and drive a Tesla and eat kale? It's impossible to know. She's not a real person to us.
But wait, what if the people talking to you are people very much like you? And they show their faces and speak their minds? Kind of how Trump speaks his mind! That would stand out. In fact, it does.
In 1980, when I was one year too young to vote, I saw a commercial that was nothing but regular people on the street (or natural-looking actors?) saying they had been Democrats their whole lives, but after Jimmy Carter they had to change. I thought, wow, that's going to do some damage.
Or you might remember Harry and Louise.
In 1993 they sat at their kitchen table and frustratedly went through their monthly bills and expressed their fear of the Clintons' health-care reform. "Harry" and "Louise" were actors hired by the health-care industry, but they made their point, spread fear of Hillary's incomprehensible, secretly formulated health-care plan, and perhaps singlehandedly defeated it. People watching could see them and say, "Yeah, that's what my life is like too. I'm scared too!"
Why isn't there a Harry and Louise for today?
Well, there kind of is. The group Republican Voters Against Trump has provided a platform for sane Republicans to declare themselves against Trump and make their case to other voters ... like themselves.
Check out this video to see what that looks like:
Now let's think about what this is doing. Remember when we talked about "paths"? (The Key #13, March 22.) That's when you give former Republicans a way to leave their old position without feeling they've changed their identity. And that's exactly what these people are doing. They're saying, there are more people like you. If we can do it, you can too.
The voices are coming from inside the house.
Takeaway: Your message should come from real people.
• Okay, so how does this help me?
If I were running a campaign, I would be spending a huge amount of staff time on finding, contacting and promoting party-changers in my area, especially those who want to speak out about it. (Identifying outspoken people is an important part of this job. We’ll talk about this in the future — “keeping things private” vs. “putting it all out there” are two distinct personality types.)
I would ask these folks, what changed for you? This will give you some of the most important insights you can have into the thought process of mind-changers. This is the meaning of “paths”: You have to know what identity-consistent mental path the people around you followed that worked for them. (The Key #13, March 22.)
Maybe somebody’s telling you, “I’m a nurse and I don’t feel like anyone knows what we were going through during Covid, and then to see Trump get on TV and tell people the opposite of what was happening, that just hit me personally.” Then you should be talking about that: “I hear from hospital workers who were risking their lives to save other people’s lives. And then when Trump went on TV and told people the opposite of what was happening, they felt it was a slap in the face. But we haven’t forgotten them. We remember everything they did for us.”
I would have the candidate personally give these people a call, even just to make friendly contact: “It’s great to talk with you. I heard about your journey and I wanted to hear more about it and tell you how much I appreciate your strength and independence.”
Maybe I would bring them together for pizza to meet each other and create a network that gives them social support in this new tribe they find themselves in. It would help to know people just like them.
Instead of running an ad about “My Opponent is bad for America,” I would run ads where Former Republicans X, Y and Z tell their own stories. If you’re serious about flipping votes, they are the messengers.
Takeaway: The party-leavers in your district are your messengers.
Takeaway Toteboard
- KEY #1: Republicans are from Mars, Democrats are from Swarthmore. (Feb. 23):
• Democrats run an intellectual campaign to voters who are emotional creatures.
• Instead of running an intellectual campaign, we need to use our intellect to create an emotional campaign.
- KEY #2: What does the Democrats’ hat say? (Feb. 26)
• The Republicans’ philosophy fits on a hat. Democrats don’t have one.
- KEY #3: Love isn’t rational. (Feb 28):
• Politics is emotion.
• If you find yourself trying to argue intellectually, stop! Find the emotional argument.
- KEY #4: You’re an animal! (March 1):
• Our attitudes come from our identity.
• You are speaking to the voter's animal brain.
- KEY #5: Don’t take away my _____! (March 4):
• Don't get into a fight with people's way of life.
• When you talk about change, find the “win.”
- KEY #6: You are this boy and life is this marshmallow. (March 6):
• Find ways to affirm people's way of life.
• Don’t just campaign; build community.
- KEY #7: Motivated reasoning (aka “Remember this friggin guy?”) (March 8):
• People believe what they need to believe.
- KEY #8: How your head keeps from exploding (March 11):
• People experiencing cognitive dissonance want an alternative narrative to make it better.
• Do not engage with your opponent’s alternative narrative.
- KEY #9: Lalalalalalalala, I'm not listening! (March 13):
• People don't hear information that conflicts with their opinions.
• Misinformation stays in people's heads. (And trying to correct it doesn't work well.)
• Don't respond to attacks by repeating the same attacks in your own language.
- KEY #10: Maybe there’s hope for people (March 15):
• Get out ahead of charges with your own framing.
• Correct misinformation fast.
• Let people know when they're about to hear something untrue.
• Undermine the source.
• Reframe, don’t repeat.
- KEY #11: The first rule of debate club is … (March 18):
• Arguing with people doesn't change their minds.
- KEY #12: Today’s the day we talk about The Key (March 20):
• Make people feel non-threatened by your approach.
• People can change their minds if they can keep their own identity.
- KEY #13: If you steal one idea from me this year, let it be ... (March 22):
• Start by affirming the other person’s identity.
• Create an identity-consistent "path" that leads the voter in the direction you want.
• Create an "offramp" for uncomfortable Republicans.
• The campaign is inside their heads, not yours.
• Use your intelligence not to make an intellectual argument but to make a psychological argument.
- KEY #14: That time we got it wrong (March 25):
• Don’t attack people who are changing.
- KEY #15: Yes, we clan! (March 27):
• Do not get into a fight with someone's tribe.
- KEY #16: Tribalism works against us ... but can it work for us? (March 29):
• Do not trigger tribal identification.
• People have many tribes. Access a different tribe.
- KEY #17: It’s coming from inside the house. (April 4):
• Your message should come from real people.
• The party-leavers in your district are your messengers.